New Billionaire Tax odds reveals huge swing in chance of becoming California law

The percentages of California voters passing a proposed one-time Billionaire Tax have cratered on Polymarket — marking a shocking swing for the soak-the-rich measure because it fights to change into a actuality.

Merchants on Wednesday morning gave the tax simply an 18% likelihood of passing within the 2026 California election.

That could be a sharp drop from 40% on June 11 — and an enormous collapse from the market’s 61% excessive on Jan. 9.

The most recent quantity additionally seems to place the tax bellow a earlier low of 19% on Jan. 4, in response to the chart on Polymarket’s web site.

The prediction market, which has greater than $3.38 million in quantity, asks whether or not a “billionaire one-time wealth tax” will go in California’s Nov. 3, 2026 election.

Below Polymarket’s guidelines, the market resolves “Sure” is any proposition containing a one-time wealth tax concentrating on people, households or household items with a minimum of $1 billion in wealth, belongings or internet price passes in that election. In any other case, it resolves “No.”

The slide comes because the wealth tax turns into a high-stakes combat within the Golden State, with supporters pitching it as a solution to elevate cash for state applications and critics warning it may drive rich residents and companies out of California. Google co-founder Sergey Brin has been maybe essentially the most stunning opponent, breaking years of relative political silence to throw his weight, and his pockets, behind defeating the plan.

Polymarket posted on X on June 15 that the billionaire wealth tax was “not projected” to look on the California poll, although that put up referred to the ballot-access market — not the market on whether or not the measure would finally go.

The most recent odds present a dramatic reversal from January, when bettors briefly fave the proposal better-than-even odds of passing.

Now, with the 2026 simply months away, the market is treating the billionaire tax as a protracted shot.

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