‘Fool’s gold’: How concerning is Patriots’ soft schedule when it comes to playoff success?

The New England Patriots enter Week 12 within the driver’s seat to win the AFC East. They’ve a two-game lead over the Buffalo Payments, have already gained the primary head-to-head assembly and solely play one recreation the remainder of the best way towards a staff that presently a successful document — Buffalo. 

The most important story involving the Patriots this season is the emergence of second-year quarterback Drake Maye and his rise to stardom. He has modified all the pieces for the franchise and, on the floor, has made them a viable Tremendous Bowl contender in a wide-open AFC. 

Are the Patriots “idiot’s gold”?

Former Patriots quarterback and one-time NFL MVP Got here Newton referred to New England as “idiot’s gold.” Why? The staff’s schedule.

The subplot to the Patriots’ success is the aforementioned schedule itself. Particularly, how delicate it has been. The Patriots enter Week 12 having performed what’s mathematically the NFL’s second-softest schedule, with solely the Chicago Bears (.348) having a decrease power of schedule quantity than the Patriots (.363). 

Together with that, the Patriots’ power of victory (.355) is the second-lowest amongst groups presently in a playoff place, forward of solely the Bears (.285). 

If there’s a crimson flag with groups just like the Patriots and Bears, it’s the easy reality they’ve each performed extraordinarily favorable schedules up to now and haven’t but been totally examined. However does this imply something in the case of potential playoff success?

It’d.

NFL groups with low power of victory numbers are likely to battle in playoffs

There are not any simple video games within the NFL. This isn’t faculty soccer the place Alabama can simply schedule a directional faculty from Missouri and pay them cash to indicate up for a 60-point win. All people is sweet. All people is able to beating everyone else on any given week. However there are video games which are considerably more durable than others. Thus far this season, the Patriots and Bears probably not performed any of these.

New England, for instance, has performed simply 4 groups that presently have a successful document. It’s 3-1 in these video games, having crushed Buffalo, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers, whereas additionally shedding to Pittsburgh.

The Bears, in the meantime, have performed only one recreation towards a staff with a successful document (the Detroit Lions) and misplaced by 31 factors. The Bears even have a 14-point loss to a .500 Baltimore Ravens staff.

However what precisely does this imply for the playoffs? 

Nicely, should you return over the previous 10 seasons, there have been 23 groups that entered the playoffs with a power of victory variety of .400 or decrease. 

(Power of victory and schedule numbers through ESPN’s playoff standings web page.)

Solely 9 of these 23 groups gained a playoff recreation.

Solely three of them (the 2024 Washington Commanders, 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars) gained multiple playoff recreation. 

Mixed, these groups went simply 14-21 general of their respective playoff video games. That’s solely a .400 successful share. Not precisely lots of success as soon as they began enjoying more durable groups. 

Just one staff that has appeared in a Tremendous Bowl over the previous 10 years has carried out so with a power of victory quantity decrease than .400 (the 2020 Buccaneers), whereas no Tremendous Bowl staff over that stretch has had a decrease power of schedule quantity than .439. 

On the finish of the day groups can solely play who the NFL tells them to play. Good groups additionally ought to beat up on lesser groups. No one ought to apologize for successful within the NFL. However there can nonetheless be some questions as to how good sure groups really are.

The Patriots have video games with Buffalo and Baltimore remaining that might be their hardest assessments.

The Bears play a frightening schedule the remainder of the best way with Pittsburgh, Detroit, the Philadelphia Eagles, the San Francisco 49ers and Inexperienced Bay Packers (twice). 

How these groups do in these video games will inform us quite a bit about their playoff probabilities.