WINNIPEG, Manitoba — A goaltender successful the Hart Trophy is an exceptionally uncommon factor, with Connor Hellebuyck breaking a 10-year drought on the place final season.
So with Hellebuyck within the crease for the Jets on Tuesday towards the Islanders and Ilya Sorokin, it appeared nearly as good a time as any to ponder whether or not Sorokin — the present favourite for the Vezina Trophy — has any likelihood of constructing it a double and in addition successful the league MVP.
To his teammates and head coach, the reply is that he definitely ought to.
“He’s been one among our greatest gamers this 12 months,” Emil Heineman mentioned. “He’s received numerous video games for us. So I feel he needs to be up there for positive.”
“To me he’s the perfect goalie within the NHL,” Jean-Gabriel Pageau advised The Publish.
“Completely,” coach Patrick Roy mentioned. “Completely.”
OK, however let’s be actual for a second. The Islanders aren’t precisely goal about whether or not their teammates ought to win awards, understandably so. Is there an actual case that Sorokin needs to be within the dialog for the Hart?
Nicely that relies upon the way you take a look at it. For those who strictly interpret the standards of “participant most useful to his group,” then sure, Sorokin is definitely essentially the most invaluable Islander. Then once more, if voters interpreted that strictly, each poll would have the 5 finest goaltenders on it, and that doesn’t are likely to occur.
A 12 months in the past, when Hellebuyck beat out Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl, the Winnipeg netminder led the league in objectives towards common (2.00), wins (47) and Evolving Hockey’s measure of objectives saved above anticipated (49.48) whereas being second in save proportion (.925). Draisaitl completed with 106 factors, which ranked third, whereas main the league with 52 objectives in 71 video games performed.
Sorokin, going into Tuesday evening, wasn’t main the league in any of the identical classes. His 4 shutouts have been tied for essentially the most within the league, however his case for the Hart would relaxation extra on analytics and on a literal interpretation of how invaluable he’s for the Islanders.
Mike Kelly, director of analytics and insights for SportLogiq, the platform utilized by most NHL groups (together with the Islanders) tweeted Sunday that by his firm’s metrics, Sorokin leads the NHL in objectives saved above anticipated and in goaltender steals — which is to say, video games by which the goaltender “steals” a victory for his group — with 9. He’s additionally third in SportLogiq’s high quality begin metric. Evolving Hockey, which measures objectives saved above anticipated in another way from SportLogiq, has him behind Washington’s Logan Thompson within the class.
That’s all nice, however most writers who vote for the Hart Trophy don’t have entry to SportLogiq, so making a case totally on their stats goes to be a tricky promote for that purpose alone, unfair as it might be.
There’s additionally the matter of Nathan MacKinnon, the present frontrunner, who already has 81 factors in simply 45 video games on an Avalanche group that’s misplaced simply 4 video games in regulation. MacKinnon, the Hart winner in 2023-24, additionally leads the league in scoring with 36 objectives and plus/minus at an absurd plus-49.
A superb comparability for Sorokin’s case proper now would really be his personal 2022-23 season, when he single-handedly willed the Islanders into the playoffs and completed with 51.36 objectives saved above anticipated, the second-highest complete ever tracked by Evolving Hockey. That 12 months, Sorokin completed second in Vezina Trophy voting — a swing and a miss by voters — and ninth for the Hart.
The Islanders are a significantly better group this 12 months, which ought to assist Sorokin’s visibility come awards season, however no less than proper now, it appears unlikely he’ll break into the dialog for league MVP. In fact, there’s loads of time for that to alter, and the Islanders would understandably be aware that they wouldn’t be the place they’re with out him.
“He has an influence each evening he’s within the web for us,” Pageau mentioned. “He provides us an opportunity to win, or he wins the sport himself typically. He’s our greatest participant many of the nights. I might for positive contemplate him within the Hart race.”
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