Gross sales volumes have continued to say no throughout New Zealand’s housing market, marking a 3rd consecutive month-to-month fall and lengthening a subdued begin to 2026, whilst property values stay broadly steady, says Cotality NZ.
Its month-to-month housing chart pack exhibits gross sales volumes in March had been down -2.4 per cent in comparison with the identical time final yr, following falls of -7.6 per cent in January and -3.1 per cent in February.
Taken collectively, the outcomes depart exercise monitoring round or under long-term averages throughout the primary quarter.
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson says the persistence of weaker gross sales suggests one thing greater than a easy start-of-year adjustment.
“January’s weak spot might have been defined by exercise being pulled ahead into December to nab a beneficiant cash-back, however that softness has carried via February and March as effectively.
“We’ve now had three subdued months in a row, which signifies a weaker first quarter than anticipated. It’s not a pointy downturn, however it does present that confidence remains to be muted and patrons are taking their time.”
Property values held comparatively regular via the softer gross sales atmosphere, with the nationwide median rising 0.2 per cent in March and 0.3 per cent throughout the primary quarter.
Nonetheless, efficiency throughout the primary centres stays uneven with Auckland values down – 0.2 per cent over the three months to March and -3.4 per cent decrease over the previous yr.
Christchurch recorded modest positive aspects, with values rising 1.1 per cent over the quarter and a couple of.4 per cent yearly.
Davidson says these variations replicate native provide dynamics and shifts in affordability.
“Auckland nonetheless seems to be costly in greenback phrases, however once you have a look at it in opposition to native incomes it’s extra inexpensive than it has been for fairly a while.
“That’s serving to help demand in that market, even when value development stays pretty contained general.”
First dwelling patrons proceed to play a serious position in NZ’s market, accounting for greater than 27 per cent of purchases nationally throughout the primary quarter, effectively above their long-term common of round 22 per cent.
In Auckland, their share was larger once more at round 30 per cent, with even stronger concentrations in different elements of the nation together with Hamilton (33 per cent) and the broader Wellington are (37 per cent).
Davidson says the consistency of first dwelling purchaser exercise was pretty evenly unfold throughout the nation and supported by a mixture of things similar to improved affordability and entry to credit score.
“Decrease home costs in contrast to a couple years in the past, diminished mortgage charges, and KiwiSaver withdrawals are all serving to.
“However simply as necessary is that many patrons don’t want a full 20 per cent deposit. Greater than half of first dwelling purchaser lending remains to be being achieved under that threshold, which makes an actual distinction to entry.”
Situations within the rental market stay subdued, with Stats NZ information exhibiting rents have fallen -0.4 per cent within the yr to March and Ministry of Innovation Enterprise and Enterprise figures recording a -1.6 per cent fall in February.
On the identical time, gross rental yields have improved to three.9 per cent nationally, their highest degree since 2015, reflecting earlier declines in property values alongside prior lease development.
Davidson says current information suggests rents could also be approaching a ground, however volatility within the month-to-month figures makes it troublesome to attract agency conclusions.
“There are some hints within the newest numbers that rents might be flattening out, with migration selecting up and rental listings easing a little bit.
“However rents are nonetheless very excessive relative to incomes, so even when they’ve flattened out, a powerful upswing is unlikely.”
Davidson says the housing market began 2026 with restricted momentum, and world uncertainty, together with larger inflation and rate of interest expectations, continues to weigh on confidence.
The current first quarter Shopper Value Index end result was comparatively becalmed, however the important thing interval nonetheless lies forward with the most recent quarter capturing solely the preliminary results of the Iran battle.
Davidson says the Q1 quantity could not look too dangerous by itself, however it might be the calm earlier than stronger inflation pressures come via later within the yr.
“Property gross sales volumes had been already smooth via the primary quarter, and that was earlier than the most recent developments across the Iran battle.
“For now, costs are holding up moderately effectively, however turnover remains to be on the softer facet.
“Till confidence improves and movers begin to re-engage, gross sales volumes are prone to stay subdued. Close to-term downwards strain on costs wouldn’t be a shock.”
