This text was first printed on The Dialog and is republished with permission.
Remark: On the again of each greenback invoice, the phrase Novus Ordo Seclorum (‘New order of the ages’) hints on the precept guiding the US’ new safety technique.
The assault on Venezuela and the seize of President Nicolás Maduro herald the decoupling of Donald Trump’s United States from the rules-based worldwide order, and the top of liberal order as a complete. A brand new worldwide order is now rising, primarily based on using drive, revisionism and safety on the American continent.
Listed here are 5 keys to understanding the outcomes of the army intervention, and the brand new order it ushers in.
Expanded presidential energy
The assault cements the brand new doctrine of an imperious President, one who executes orders with out ready for congressional approval, authorized validation or media opinion.
With checks and balances weakened, the second Trump administration is free to current the brand new order as a query of pressing safety: with the US at battle towards drug trafficking (or migration) and threatened by ‘new powers’ (a euphemism for China), it has no must respect correct procedures or timelines.
Trump identifies himself with historic, founding American presidents like Washington, Lincoln and Roosevelt. All three have been charismatic leaders, and with the 250th anniversary of the US republic approaching, such comparisons feed into Trump’s authoritarian rhetoric.
Erosion of the US political and authorized system is plain. The President has authorised an in depth bundle of laws that promote emergency powers, a everlasting state of disaster, and suppression of political opposition and the judicial system. The assault on Venezuela is one more milestone within the reconfiguration of the presidency’s relations to the legislative and judicial branches of energy, consistent with the Hamiltonian custom of a robust and unifying government department.
(Latin) America for the (US) People
On the worldwide stage, the assault on Venezuela advances a diplomatic agenda that’s rooted within the defence of nationwide pursuits. The idea of ‘America for the People’ has made a robust comeback: Panama, Mexico and Canada have all been made to bow to Trump’s will, whereas the administration continues to push for management of Greenland.
In Latin America, Brazil and Colombia’s left-wing governments lead regional opposition to the US, whereas Chile’s newly elected José Antonio Kast and Argentina’s Javier Milei are Trump’s ideological allies. The continent as a complete is witnessing a broad shift in direction of nationalist, right-wing events that oppose migration.
If Venezuela’s post-Maduro transition aligns with these values, any hope for nationwide unity and a peaceable transition to full democracy will disappear.
Management of sources
As soon as once more, it’s all about oil, however for various causes than in Iraq. In a world the place globalisation has shifted to geoeconomics, america needs to undertaking its energy in worldwide power markets and regulation. Venezuela’s infrastructure, ports and minerals are key to creating this occur.
The US subsequently doesn’t simply need Venezuelan oil to provide its home market – it additionally needs to impose worldwide costs and dominate provide. Its new imaginative and prescient goals to align power sovereignty and technological improvement with commerce and safety.
Pax Silica – the worldwide US-led alliance signed on the finish of 2025 to safe provide chains for essential applied sciences similar to semiconductors and AI – ushers in an period of transactional diplomacy: laptop chips in trade for minerals. For the ‘new’ Venezuela, its oil reserves will permit it to take part on this new energy dynamic.
Geopolitical realignment
The American view of territory fuels a revisionist overseas coverage primarily based on sovereignty – just like these of China, Israel, or Russia – which is rooted within the idea of ‘nomos’, as outlined by mid-Twentieth century German thinker Carl Schmitt. It is a worldview the place the division of countries into ‘buddy or foe’ prevails over a liberal worldview ruled by cooperation, worldwide legislation, democracy and the free market.
Beneath this logic, spheres of affect emerge, sources are distributed, and energy blocs are balanced, because the above examples reveal: with out opposition, China would dominate Southeast Asia, Russia would cut back its battle in trade for 20 p.c of Ukraine and management over its materials sources and power, and Israel would redraw the map of the Center East and strike commerce agreements with neighbouring international locations.
Europe, democracy and Hobbes
Beliefs like democracy, the rule of legislation and free commerce are fading quick, and with out efficient capability, issues don’t finish effectively for the European Union. As we’ve seen with Gaza, the EU usually has sturdy ideological disagreement with different main powers however doesn’t command sufficient respect to do something. The US’ army intervention revives Hobbesian political realism, the place freedom is ceded to an absolute sovereign in trade for peace and safety.
In Trump’s new order, it’s presidential authority – not fact, legal guidelines or democratic values – that has the ultimate say.
