AsianScientist (Dec. 24, 2025) – Rising air pollution ranges are pushing storms away from land and intensifying rainfall over the ocean in Southeast Asia.
Biomass burning, city air pollution, and industrial emissions produce tiny particles referred to as aerosols that may dramatically alter rainfall, cloud formation, and atmospheric stability. Now, a brand new research carried out by researchers of Pusan Nationwide College, Korea, has revealed that aerosols profoundly affect rainfall patterns over the Maritime Continent, the place tens of millions depend on predictable rainfall for water, meals, and flood safety.
The Maritime Continent – a area together with Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and surrounding seas – and Southeast Asia, are acknowledged as main sources of each biomass-burning aerosol and industrial air pollution, principally resulting from fast industrialization and urbanization, in keeping with the research.
“As aerosol concentrations rise, the precipitation sample shifts from a land-enhanced to an ocean-dominant one,” stated lead writer Professor Kyong-Hwan Search engine optimization, from the Division of Atmospheric Sciences, Analysis Middle for Local weather Sciences, Pusan Nationwide College.
The research mixed high-resolution atmospheric modeling with NASA satellite tv for pc observations to uncover how rising aerosol concentrations are shifting the area’s local weather stability in surprising methods.
How the research was carried out
To grasp the affect of aerosols on climate, the researchers used a 2-km-resolution atmospheric mannequin with NASA TRMM satellite tv for pc knowledge and MERRA-2 reanalysis, to simulate various aerosol ranges throughout a 2011 Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) occasion. They examined a number of phases and years, and the outcome was constant: greater aerosol concentrations drive rainfall away from land and towards surrounding seas.
They discovered that when air pollution spikes, rainfall grows as much as 50 % extra intense over the ocean, whereas land rainfall drops sharply.
Why rain shifts from land to sea
The shift, the workforce discovered, is pushed by how aerosols cool the setting. Air pollution cools land surfaces way more than the ocean, calming the environment over islands whereas leaving the air over the ocean unstable. This distinction strengthens rising air and storm exercise over the ocean, pulling moisture away from land.
“Aerosols act like a brake on daytime heating over land, however the ocean hardly feels that brake,” Search engine optimization defined.
Air pollution additionally disrupts the area’s pure every day rainfall rhythm. As an alternative of the standard late-afternoon storms over land, excessive aerosol ranges delay peak rainfall till round midnight. This happens as a result of polluted air limits daytime heating, permitting warmth and moisture to build up and set off storms later within the night time.
Related delayed and offshore rainfall patterns have been noticed throughout actual high-pollution occasions.
What this implies for forecasting and flood preparedness
The researchers say that the findings, printed in npj Local weather and Atmospheric Science, maintain main implications for climate prediction and local weather resilience in a area already weak to excessive rainfall and flooding.
“Cities like Jakarta and Manila may gain advantage from improved short-term rainfall forecasts throughout haze episodes or air pollution episodes, serving to authorities put together for city flooding, allocate assets and mitigate dangers to infrastructure and transportation,” the researchers state.
Incorporating aerosol results into local weather fashions can also enhance predictions of the MJO, monsoon methods, and excessive tropical rainfall occasions. Over the long run, the analysis means that weakened land-based convection may permit the MJO to maneuver extra easily throughout the Maritime Continent, enhancing seasonal rainfall forecasts.
These insights, the researchers say, may strengthen water administration, meals safety, and vitality planning for tens of millions throughout Southeast Asia.
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Supply: Pusan Nationwide College; Picture: EyeEm/Freepik
The research might be discovered at: Aerosol results on Maritime Continent precipitation: Oceanic intensification and land diurnal cycle delay
Disclaimer: This text doesn’t essentially replicate the views of AsianScientist or its employees.
