ISTANBUL (AP) — An Israeli strike on a gathering of Hamas officers in Qatar has solid a cloud of rising concern throughout Turkey that it may very well be the following goal.
Turkish Protection Ministry spokesman Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk warned in Ankara on Thursday that Israel would “additional develop its reckless assaults, because it did in Qatar, and drag your complete area, together with its personal nation, into catastrophe.”
Israel and Turkey had been as soon as robust regional companions, however ties between the international locations bumped into difficulties from the late 2000s and have reached an all-time low over the conflict in Gaza sparked by the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led assault in southern Israel. Tensions even have risen as the 2 international locations have competed for affect in neighboring Syria for the reason that fall of Bashar Assad’s authorities final 12 months.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been a long-standing supporter of the Palestinian trigger and of the Palestinian militant group Hamas. The Turkish president has criticized Israel, and significantly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with strident rhetoric for the reason that begin of the Gaza conflict, accusing Israel of genocide and likening Netanyahu to Nazi chief Adolf Hitler.
Hamas officers frequently go to Turkey and a few have taken up residence there. Israel beforehand accused Turkey of permitting Hamas to plan assaults from its territory, in addition to finishing up recruitment and fundraising.
Erdogan is near Qatar’s leaders and Turkey maintains robust navy and business ties to the emirate. He is because of journey to Qatar this weekend for an Arab and Muslim leaders’ summit.
After Israel’s assaults on the territory of Iran, Syria, Yemen and now Qatar, Ankara is sure to be involved by Israel’s capacity to freely use the airspace of neighboring states.
“Israel’s capacity to conduct strikes with seeming impunity, typically bypassing regional air defenses and worldwide norms, units a precedent that deeply worries Ankara,” stated Serhat Suha Cubukcuoglu, director of Developments Analysis and Advisory’s Turkey program.
Turkey sees these assaults as a “broader Israeli technique to determine a fragmented buffer zone of weak or pacified states round it,” he added.
Turkey has superior navy would possibly
In crossing a beforehand unthinkable line by attacking Qatar, a detailed American ally that has been serving as a mediator in Gaza ceasefire talks, Israel additionally has raised the query of how far it’ll go in pursuing Hamas targets.
Via its NATO membership, Turkey would appear to have a larger diploma of safety in opposition to Israeli assault than that afforded to Qatar by its shut ties to the US.
Turkey additionally boasts considerably larger navy would possibly than the Gulf state, with its armed forces second in measurement solely to the U.S. amongst NATO international locations and a sophisticated protection trade.
As tensions rise, Turkey has boosted its defenses. Throughout Israel’s assaults on Iran’s nuclear amenities in June, Erdogan introduced a rise in missile manufacturing. Final month he formally inaugurated Turkey’s “Metal Dome” built-in air protection system, whereas tasks such because the KAAN fifth-generation fighter have been fast-tracked.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, stated an Israeli airstrike on the territory of a NATO member could be “extraordinarily unlikely,” however small-scale bomb or gun assaults on potential Hamas targets in Turkey by Israeli brokers may very well be a definite risk.
Cubukcuoglu, in the meantime, stated the Qatar assault might harden Ankara’s assist for Hamas.
“This resonates with Turkish anxieties that Israel could ultimately prolong such operations to Turkish territory,” he stated. “The Turkish authorities calculates that abandoning Hamas now would weaken its regional affect, whereas standing agency bolsters its function as a defender of Palestinian causes in opposition to Israeli aggression.”
Tensions might play out in Syria
Whereas consideration is targeted on tensions surrounding the conflict in Gaza and Turkey’s relations with Hamas, Unluhisarcikli warned the larger hazard could also be in Syria, the place he described Israel and Turkey as being “on a collision course.”
“To suppose that focusing on Turkish troops or Turkish allies or proxies in Syria could be to go too far is wishful considering,” he stated.
Since Syrian rebels unseated Assad in December, rising tensions between Turkey and Israel have performed on the market. Ankara has supported the brand new interim authorities and sought to develop its affect, together with within the navy sphere.
Israel views the brand new authorities with suspicion. It has seized a U.N.-patrolled buffer zone in southern Syria, launched tons of of airstrikes on Syrian navy amenities and positioned itself because the protector of the Druze spiritual minority in opposition to the primarily Sunni Muslim authorities in Damascus.
Tensions additionally might spill into the broader jap Mediterranean, with Israel doubtlessly drawing nearer to Greece and Greek Cypriots to problem Turkey’s navy presence in northern Cyprus.
Turkey mixes deterrence and diplomacy
Turkey seems to be pursuing a combination of navy deterrence and diplomacy in Syria geared toward defusing tensions to keep away from a direct battle with Israel.
Turkish and Israeli officers held talks in April to determine a “de-escalation mechanism” in Syria. The transfer adopted Israeli strikes on a Syrian airbase that Turkey had been purportedly planning to make use of. Netanyahu stated on the time that Turkish bases in Syria could be a “hazard to Israel.”
Ankara and Damascus final month signed an settlement on Turkey offering navy coaching and recommendation to Syria’s armed forces.
Erdogan additionally could hope Washington would take a tough line in opposition to any Israeli navy incursions.
Whereas Netanyahu has sought assist from U.S. President Donald Trump within the faceoff with Turkey, Trump as an alternative lavished reward on Erdogan for “taking on Syria” and urged Netanyahu to be “affordable” in his dealings with Turkey.
However because the strike in Qatar confirmed, having robust relations with Washington is just not essentially a safeguard in opposition to Israel.
The Qatar assault confirmed there was “no restrict to what the Israeli authorities can do,” Unluhisarcikli stated.
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Sewell contributed from Beirut.
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Observe the AP’s protection of the Israel-Hamas conflict at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war.
