What will Trump do next? 13 questions for politics in 2026

There are numerous other ways politics may go in 2026, from management of energy in Washington to the agenda President Trump pursues.

It doesn’t matter what occurs, it is going to be consequential.

Let’s check out some questions now that the brand new yr is right here:

1. Does the outlook on the financial system change or stay the identical?

People are bitter on the financial system, and Trump and the GOP are struggling due to it. Within the December NPR/PBS Information/Marist ballot, 63% of respondents stated the nation is headed within the improper course. Trump will get only a 38% approval ranking general and an excellent decrease 36% for his dealing with of the financial system.

A majority of individuals assume the nation is already in a recession, though technically it is not. They’re pessimistic about what’s forward for this yr, and costs are by far the highest financial concern.

Democrats benefited on the poll field in 2025 from these grim views, profitable particular congressional elections, the off-year gubernatorial elections and extra. Successful off-year particular elections is an efficient barometer of which get together will do properly within the following yr’s midterm elections, and the get together in energy has traditionally borne the brunt of the political punishment in robust instances.

That is prone to occur once more if views of the financial system and the price of residing do not enhance.

2. What does Trump attempt to do on affordability?

Most presidents get extra blame and credit score than they deserve on financial success or failure. However in Trump’s case, he is actively made issues costlier along with his insurance policies, significantly on the subject of the tariffs he is applied.

Polling has proven that individuals are blaming him for that, too. Two-thirds within the newest NPR ballot stated tariffs had been a priority because it associated to their budgets, and there’s a Supreme Courtroom resolution looming about their legality. A November Yahoo/YouGov ballot discovered that individuals felt, by a 2-to-1 margin, Trump had carried out extra to lift costs than decrease them.

So is there one thing tangible he can do to deal with it or seem to deal with it? He has already pulled again some tariffs on agricultural items in an try to ease costs and has promised a bailout for farmers. Will he attempt for a brand new tax credit score or try to forehead beat firms into absorbing extra of the prices? His efforts at promoting his financial system throughout an end-of-year tackle did not crystallize any particular pushes he can be making.

The White Home has tried to get the president out of Washington extra to do occasions round “affordability,” however even at these, the president has veered again to the problem that has animated his base and given gasoline to his politics – immigration and the tradition conflict.

It is one thing of a fable that presidents can persuade People to have a greater view of the financial system with their messaging. However they’ll definitely make issues worse by not showing to take financial issues severely or empathizing with voters’ ache.

3. How a lot does Trump marketing campaign for different Republicans?

Trump places GOP candidates in a vise. He stays fashionable with the bottom, however he’s poisonous with independents. Regardless of sustaining strong approval scores with Republicans, his general job approval is at or close to the bottom of his second time period.

Independents and Latinos, two key crossover teams Trump did properly with in 2024, have slid away from him, based on a number of polls and election leads to 2025.

Trump’s chief of workers, Susie Wiles, stated she goes to get the president out on the marketing campaign path greater than he may need this yr. It will likely be notable to see the place he goes and for whom.

Trump has a Midas contact in GOP primaries, nevertheless it’s the alternative generally elections in aggressive races.

There’s an actual query of simply how a lot political capital Trump has left. He is turning 80 in June and is term-limited. He is on the point of lame-duck standing that would solely be expedited with main losses, in the event that they occur, within the November midterms. So will extra Republicans, trying to a Trump-less horizon, begin carving out their very own paths?

4. Will we see extra departures from Congress?

When members of Congress from the get together in energy determine to not run for reelection in huge numbers, that may be indicative of a coming electoral wave.

And up to now, a document variety of Home members and senators have introduced they don’t seem to be working for reelection — 56 out of 535, or greater than 10%.

Within the Home alone, 44 incumbents will not be searching for reelection — 25 Republicans and 19 Democrats.

5. Does Trump pursue any sort of legislative agenda?

Trump received a spending bundle by way of Congress in 2025 that he labeled the “One Huge Stunning Invoice.” However is that it? Will there be another legislative accomplishments from this president?

That is not clear, and dealing with lawmakers definitely hasn’t been a precedence. This president, with an acquiescent Republican-controlled Congress, has as a substitute labored to centralize energy within the White Home. He is exercised that energy by way of govt actions, publicly pressuring universities, legislation corporations and the media, and pushing the boundaries of what is authorized on each the home and worldwide levels.

However, as previous presidents have discovered, the street to a long-lasting legacy runs by way of the opposite facet of Pennsylvania Avenue from the White Home — within the U.S. Capitol.

6. What about what the president will attempt to do on his personal?

Two areas by which Trump has acted with out Congress — and can seemingly proceed to — are overseas coverage and immigration.

That features boat strikes within the Caribbean and Pacific, threats in opposition to Venezuela, and false begins on peace makes an attempt in Ukraine and a tenuous ceasefire within the Center East.

Within the new yr, simply how far is Trump keen to go on regime change in Venezuela? Do these boat strikes proceed, will there be extra bombings contained in the nation itself, may there be retaliation, and can Congress attempt to exert authority and draw any traces to rein within the president’s unilateral motion?

Domestically, does the Trump administration proceed with its draconian immigration and deportation insurance policies? The president’s approval on immigration has slumped, although it is higher than most different points. Majorities have been saying in polls that the administration’s strategy to deportations is just too harsh or doing an excessive amount of.

7. Does Congress do something on well being care?

A type of less-grand, but-still-important legislative gadgets is well being care. Trump continues to vow well being care that will be higher than “Obamacare,” however nothing has come to fruition within the decade Trump has been on the political scene.

The federal government shut down this previous fall over these Reasonably priced Care Act subsidies. The avenue again to reopening was by way of a compromise struck between average Democrats and Republican leaders to permit a vote on ACA subsidies.

However that invoice and others didn’t cross. With individuals on the precipice of skyrocketing premiums, will Trump push for a repair, particularly in an election yr when prices are already the highest challenge for voters?

8. Does the federal government shut down once more (and who will get the blame)?

If nothing passes on the subsidies, how far are Democrats keen to take it? Will they shut the federal government down once more to try to pressure a compromise? Will voters blame them or Republicans? And the way will Democratic base voters understand their willingness to combat?

9. Will Democratic base voters rally across the get together?

It is a key query for whether or not Democrats take again management of at the least the Home on this yr’s elections. Democratic voters in 2025 had been unconvinced concerning the get together’s management.

Routinely, the Democratic Social gathering and Democrats in Congress rating decrease with voters than Republicans, and that is due to Democrats. Democrats have been far much less prone to say they approve of the job their get together is doing than Republicans.

Regardless of that, Democrats did very properly in elections in 2025, an indicator that Democratic voters’ intense disapproval of the president and GOP could trump their insecurity in their very own get together.

10. How do Democratic candidates mannequin their campaigns?

Will campaigns look extra just like the self-declared democratic socialist Mayor of New York Zohran Mamdani or Virginia Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger?

It truly is a false alternative, as none aside from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., instructed MSNBC after the 2025 elections that noticed each Mamdani and Spanberger win.

“I do not assume that our get together must have one face,” she stated. “Our nation doesn’t have one face. It is about all of us as a crew collectively, and all of us perceive the task. Our task in all places is to ship the strongest fighters for the working class wherever potential. In some locations, like Virginia, for the gubernatorial seat, that is going to appear to be Abigail Spanberger. In New York Metropolis, unequivocally, it’s Zohran Mamdani.”

However count on Republicans to attempt to tie each Democrat to Mamdani, on the very least to fireplace up their base — although it isn’t clear how a lot that may work anymore, contemplating Trump’s unexpectedly effusive reward of the then-incoming New York mayor at a joint Oval Workplace assembly.

11. Do any Cupboard members exit? 

It is common to see turnover within the White Home and govt department. In truth, a scarcity of it will be odd.

Take into account that, within the 4 years of Trump’s first time period, he ran by way of 4 chiefs of workers and — whether or not appearing or confirmed — 4 completely different protection secretaries and 4 secretaries of state.

Names which have reportedly been on the new seat at numerous factors in 2025 embrace Secretary of Protection Pete Hegseth (the administration refers to him as secretary of conflict), in addition to Homeland Safety Secretary Kristi Noem. The president has, up to now, stood by them, although.

12. How does the redistricting arms race shake out?

An enormous key to regulate of Congress goes to be how mid-decade redistricting settles. Due to how districts are drawn, there are fewer and fewer aggressive seats — even much less so since 2018 when Republicans misplaced 40 seats with Trump within the White Home.

The margin within the Home is razor skinny, so each seat goes to matter. Recognizing this, Trump took the extraordinary step of making an attempt to get crimson states to carve out extra GOP-leaning targets. He is had combined success.

Republicans will seemingly tilt just a few extra seats of their course, nevertheless it may have been worse for Democrats. And Democrats have had shocking success in countering GOP initiatives. That is significantly true of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who received his state’s voters to briefly nix a requirement that the state draw districts by unbiased fee. That may seemingly lead to a handful of extra Democratic seats.

It was a serious victory for Newsom, somebody who very a lot has his eyes on 2028.

13. How do candidates start to place for 2028?

Imagine it or not, 2026 would be the yr that these 2028 presidential rumblings begin.

Control who begins making journeys to Iowa and New Hampshire. There is a lengthy listing of names of Republicans who wish to fill the void that might be left by Trump when he leaves, and an equally lengthy — if not longer — line of Democrats who wish to promote their post-Trump imaginative and prescient for America.

Keep in mind this would be the first open presidential election in a dozen years and certain the primary with out a Trump, Biden, Clinton or Bush on the poll in additional than 30 years. And it was in October of 2006 when Barack Obama went on NBC’s Meet the Press, modified his thoughts and opened the door to a run in 2008.

So who is aware of what is going to occur or who will emerge, however the jockeying has already begun.