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How Iran war is affecting ‘volatile’ UK housing market

March 12, 2026
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How Iran war is affecting ‘volatile’ UK housing market
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The UK housing market is grappling with a major lack of momentum as persistent world and financial uncertainties proceed to dampen house purchaser sentiment.

The Royal Establishment of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) revealed that whereas the 12 months initially started with some encouraging indicators, confidence rapidly weakened amid escalating issues over inflation, rising rates of interest and broader worldwide instability.

New purchaser inquiries noticed a notable decline in February, with a web stability of 26 per cent of property professionals reporting a fall, a deterioration from the 15 per cent recorded in January.

Agreed gross sales additionally remained subdued, with a web stability of 12 per cent of pros noting a lower.

Surveyors anticipate a continued dip in gross sales exercise within the speedy future. Nonetheless, the long-term outlook seems extra strong, as a web stability of 17 per cent of pros count on gross sales to rebound over the subsequent 12 months.

Home costs had been broadly flat total in February, with a web stability of 12 per cent of pros reporting falls, however there have been large regional variations, Rics mentioned.

Downward value strain is especially robust in London, the South East and East Anglia, whereas Northern Eire, Scotland and the North West of England are nonetheless reporting firmer value developments, in response to the report.

Wanting forward, surveyors have change into extra cautious about home costs within the close to time period, however wanting additional forward to the subsequent 12 months a web stability of 33 per cent of pros predict costs to edge greater.

Some average mortgage rates on the market have also flown past the 5 per cent mark as lenders have scrambled to make changes
Some common mortgage charges in the marketplace have additionally flown previous the 5 per cent mark as lenders have scrambled to make modifications (Anthony Devlin/PA)

However in London, expectations for home costs within the subsequent 12 months have “cooled sharply”, the report discovered.

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On the availability facet, new directions remained broadly steady in February, indicating little speedy shift within the pipeline of latest inventory.

Within the lettings market, tenant demand was broadly steady over the three months to February, however landlord directions had been “firmly detrimental”, pointing to a scarcity of rental properties. Professionals predict rents to rise total within the subsequent three months, the report discovered.

Mortgage lenders have been withdrawing offers and rising their charges as swap charges have elevated, with issues about rising costs mounting amid the battle within the Center East.

Monetary data web site Moneyfactscompare.co.uk mentioned on Wednesday that latest days have been among the most turbulent within the UK mortgage market because the aftermath of the September 2022 mini-budget.

Some common mortgage charges in the marketplace have additionally flown previous the 5 per cent mark as lenders have scrambled to make modifications.

Rics head of market analysis and analytics, Tarrant Parsons, mentioned: “February’s survey highlights renewed volatility out there.

“Whereas exercise indicators firstly of the 12 months prompt a tentative enchancment, the deterioration within the geopolitical backdrop has clearly weighed on confidence.

“The latest rise in oil and vitality costs has additionally elevated the chance that mortgage charges will stay greater for longer.

“Consequently, near-term expectations have softened. Though the 12-month outlook stays constructive total, sustaining that trajectory will rely on the latest spike in inflationary pressures easing within the months forward.”



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