Beware of Central Economic Forecasts for 2026

Forecasting a central state of affairs for the U.S. economic system in 2026 seems to be a simple train. However the likelihood that this baseline forecast would materialize most likely doesn’t exceed 50%: the "regular" bell distribution has been changed by one with unusually "fats tails": the likelihood of extra excessive outcomes, each virtuous and cruel, is critical and equally doable. The U.S. economic system is just not a lot on a single trajectory as it’s locked in a tense tug-of-war between three distinct futures: a "Goldilocks-lite" central baseline, a productivity-fueled upside state of affairs, and a…



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