After a wave of horrific shootings, gun violence trends put recent attacks in context

On a visceral degree, it feels far too frequent.

Every week in the past, conservative activist Charlie Kirk was assassinated whereas talking at a school in Utah. That very same day, a scholar opened hearth at a Colorado highschool, critically wounding two friends. Simply two weeks earlier, a mass capturing at a Minnesota Catholic church killed two youngsters and injured 21 others.

As soon as once more, a collection of horrific, high-profile shootings has gripped the nation and introduced nationwide focus to the problem of gun violence, particularly because it pertains to faculty security and politically motivated assaults.

NPR spoke with specialists on mass shootings, political violence, and college assaults concerning the knowledge, tendencies and context to raised perceive this second.

This is what to know.

Are mass shootings turning into extra frequent? 

There is not any common definition for a mass capturing, so knowledge can range based mostly on the variety of victims killed or injured, the place the capturing happened, and whether or not it was associated to gang exercise or terrorism.

For instance, the Regional Gun Violence Analysis Consortium on the Rockefeller Institute of Authorities, a nonpartisan assume tank, solely tracks shootings that happen in public or populated locations, contain not less than two victims (injured or killed), and excludes incidents associated to gang violence or terrorist exercise. By their definition, there have been 12 mass shootings in 2025.

In the meantime, the Gun Violence Archive — which counts all situations wherein 4 or extra individuals had been shot (accidents and deaths), not together with the shooter, and no matter location — reported over 300 mass shootings this yr.

Nonetheless, by most requirements, mass shootings are extra frequent now than they had been 50 years in the past, in response to Garen Wintemute, director of the  Facilities for Violence Prevention on the College of California, Davis. On the similar time, mass capturing deaths signify solely a tiny fraction of individuals killed by gun violence. Wintemute stated that almost all additionally do not resemble the assaults that dominate nationwide headlines.

“ Most mass shootings should not occasions that generate lots of publicity,” he stated. “ Most mass shootings have some connection to home violence.”

Everytown for Gun Security, an advocacy group that makes use of knowledge from the Gun Violence Archive, discovered that in 46% of mass shootings from 2015 via 2022, “the perpetrator shot a present or former intimate accomplice or member of the family.”

What about faculty shootings?

Gun-related incidents on faculty grounds have surged because the pandemic, in response to David Riedman, a researcher who tracks all circumstances wherein a gun is fired, brandished or wherein a bullet hits Ok-12 faculty property. His Ok-12 Faculty Capturing Database reveals that there have been greater than 160 incidents thus far this yr.

Earlier than 2021, the variety of situations had not surpassed 124. However by 2023, that determine climbed to 351. Whereas the latest assault at Evergreen Excessive Faculty in Colorado is entrance of thoughts, Riedman stated most shootings are the results of an escalated dispute.

“ That actually escalated within the late 2010s after which turned a good larger drawback post-COVID through the return of each college students and neighborhood members to the campuses,” he stated.

At massive, solely a small share of Ok-12 faculties report gun-related situations annually, in response to Riedman. Amongst faculty incidents, a part of the problem is that some college students reside in houses the place firearms are simply accessible or not correctly secured, he stated.

“There are college students arrested with weapons at faculties nearly each single day, they usually do not have a plan to shoot anybody,” Riedman stated. “They only carry the gun with them usually for both the status of getting it or for defense as a result of they themselves concern being victimized.”

Are politically motivated assaults turning into a much bigger risk within the U.S.?

Political violence has been rising over the previous decade, in response to terrorism and gun violence specialists. Joshua Horwitz, the co-director of the Johns Hopkins Heart for Gun Violence Options, stated whereas the problem has existed all through American historical past, the latest surge is critical.

“Simply within the final 12 months we have seen horrible, horrible examples of political violence,” he stated. “ We have simply seen much more intimidation recently.”

There are a number of methods to measure this, however one indicator comes from the U.S. Capitol Police. In 2024, the company investigated over 9,400 “regarding statements and direct threats” in opposition to members of Congress — greater than twice the quantity in 2017.

In a examine revealed on Monday, Wintemute of UC Davis discovered that whereas most People reject political violence, those that maintain dangerous beliefs — similar to racism, hostile sexism, homonegativity, transphobia, xenophobia, antisemitism, or Islamophobia — are additionally extra possible than others to imagine that political violence is justifiable. Help for political violence was even increased amongst people who harbored a number of hateful phobias, in response to his survey of over 9,300 adults.

However Wintemute’s analysis additionally suggests there are small steps that may assist curb political violence. In a survey carried out final yr, a small variety of respondents stated they’d take part if a civil warfare broke out. But, of that group, about 45% stated they’d abandon that place if urged by members of the family.

“  We simply have to be sure that these of us who reject it converse as loudly as do those that help it,” he added.

How widespread is the problem of gun violence? 

Greater than 46,000 individuals died from gun-related accidents in 2023, in response to an evaluation by Pew Analysis Heart utilizing the newest obtainable knowledge from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention. Gun homicides have declined since 2021, whereas suicides proceed to make up a majority of gun deaths, Pew Analysis discovered. However for a lot of People, gun violence might hit nearer to residence than many individuals count on.

In 2023, Liz Hamel and her group at KFF, a well being analysis group, carried out a survey of greater than 1,200 adults throughout the nation about their experiences with gun-related incidents. The survey discovered that 1 in 5 respondents stated they’ve personally been threatened with a gun, whereas almost 1 in 6 stated they’ve personally witnessed an individual get shot. Worries about gun violence additionally affected Black and Hispanic respondents disproportionately.

“We frequently see nationwide consideration to the problem of gun violence within the wake of high-profile occasions,” Hamel stated. “What our polling actually reveals is that experiences with gun-related incidents are extra frequent than you would possibly assume among the many U.S. inhabitants.”

Within the survey, 84% of all members stated they’ve taken not less than one precaution to guard themselves in opposition to gun violence. The most typical step was talking to family members about gun security. However a couple of third stated they’ve averted massive crowds or large occasions. In the meantime, 3 out of 10 stated they’ve bought a firearm to guard themselves or their household from gun violence.

Of the individuals who have a gun of their residence, almost half of members stated a firearm was saved in an unlocked location and greater than one-third stated a gun was saved loaded. Greater than half stated not less than one gun is saved in the identical location because the ammunition. These outcomes recommend the necessity for extra efforts to show the general public about protected gun storage practices, in response to Hamel.

“  We do see alternatives for improved consciousness round gun security,” she stated.