Scarborough: We’re Certainly Not Hoping For Things To Unravel In Venezuela, BUT…

“The whole lot earlier than the phrase ‘however’ is horse s–.” — Jon Snow, Recreation of Thrones.

Joe Scarborough gave an ideal illustration of Snow’s dictum on immediately’s Morning Joe:

“We’re definitely not hoping that issues [in Venezuela] unravel, however that is what current historical past has taught us.”

The success of the operation that resulted within the extraction of Maduro and his spouse with out the lack of a single life among the many 1000’s of US army members concerned has been a bitter capsule for Scarborough and the remainder of the liberal media to swallow. 

Scarborough acknowledged that success as the start of his assertion: “The army operation was executed, from each report I’ve seen, flawlessly.” The primary “however” arrived instantly thereafter: “however let’s speak about what we have discovered over the previous 20 years and the issues that I believe most People share with me.”

Given the preliminary success, you simply know that Scarborough and the remainder of the liberal media are all of the extra hoping and praying, ready to pounce on the slightest indication that issues aren’t going in accordance with plan.

And that is how Scarborough’s second, telling, “however” popped up:

“There’s little or no a president can do if you attempt to occupy a overseas nation as issues unravel. It is definitely not what we’re hoping for right here, however it’s what historical past, current historical past, has taught us over the previous 20 years.”

Not what you are hoping, Joe. Riight. 

Scarborough primarily based his argument on analogizing the Venezuelan operation to the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, which each ended badly. However there are good causes to reject these analogies. Because the spokesman for Venezuela’s opposition has famous:

Venezuela has respectable democratic management—twice over. María Corina Machado was elected because the chief of the democratic motion with 93% of the votes within the opposition primaries, and Edmundo González Urrutia was elected president with 70% of the votes,. This double democratic legitimacy doesn’t exist within the aforementioned international locations.
Venezuela has a robust democratic legacy. Throughout the second half of the twentieth century, Venezuela was one of the crucial affluent and steady democracies in Latin America. This historic background contrasts sharply with international locations equivalent to Libya, Somalia, or Afghanistan, which lacked consolidated democratic traditions earlier than their crises.
Venezuela doesn’t face deep spiritual or ethnic divisions. In contrast to Iraq, the place sectarian and ethnic conflicts have performed a central position in political instability, Venezuela doesn’t undergo from deep-rooted spiritual or ethnic clashes that might fracture society throughout a transition course of. This considerably reduces the danger of inner battle and state fragmentation.

There’s a persuasive argument that, as an alternative of Afghanistan and Iraq, the US operations in Grenada and Panama are the extra apt analogies to the Venezuela operation.

The 1983 invasion of Grenada ordered by President Reagan overthrew the Marxist army junta that had seized energy. Only one 12 months later, Grenada held a aggressive election, and since that point, Grenada has remained a steady and fairly affluent democracy.

Much more analogous was the US operation in Panama on the finish of 1989, ordered by President George H.W. Bush. Very similar to the state of affairs in Venezuela, the operation was aimed on the seize and arrest of Manuel Noriega, the army dictator and a drug kingpin who remodeled Panama right into a hub for cocaine trafficking. He was captured and placed on trial in Miami, convicted of a number of drug-related offenses, and served an extended jail time period. He was finally extradited to Panama and sentenced to a number of 20-year sentences for the homicide of political opponents. He remained a prisoner on the time of his loss of life in 2017 on the age of 83. The parallel to the seize of Maduro to face a number of drug-trafficking prices within the US is hanging. 

After Noriega was deposed, Panama established a constitutional democracy and has since maintained steady democratic establishments. And Panama has a flourishing economic system, with per capita revenue akin to that of some Jap European international locations. 

No analogies are good. And there are sure to be challenges and setbacks alongside the best way in Venezuela. Success will not be assured. However Scarborough’s “buts,” and the wishin’ and hopin’ they characterize for American failure in Venezuela, say far more about Scarborough’s partisanship than they do in regards to the actuality of the state of affairs. 

This is the transcript.

MS NOWMorning Joe1/5/266:06 am ET

JOE SCARBOROUGH: The army operation was executed, from each report I’ve seen, flawlessly, however let’s, let’s speak about what we have discovered over the previous 20 years and the issues that I believe most People share with me. Not that Maduro’s been taken out, however what occurs subsequent? 

DAVID IGNATIUS: In order that what-next drawback is the half that haunts anyone who was current, as I used to be, as US troops rolled into Baghdad in 2003. You may hear in President Trump’s voice final evening as he spoke on Air Power One the exhilaration that presidents really feel after they use army energy efficiently. Simply, there was a lion’s roar as he talked about, you understand, be careful, Colombia. It is a sick chief. They’re subsequent. Be careful, Mexico. Mexico’s run by cartels. Cuba’s about to disintegrate. This was a president who was simply feeling what army energy can do. 

And the issue is, you do not look over the subsequent hill to all the issues you are going to encounter. It was inside every week of that arrival in Baghdad that the U.S. started combating the fact. Who’s going to manipulate this nation now tha Saddam Hussein has been deposed, and you’ve got all of the completely different factions competing for affect.

It is apparent that the technique, higher outlined, actually, by Marco Rubio, the Washington Publish, cleverly, is looking the viceroy of Venezuela, that his method is is to depart President Delcy Rodriguez in place, to attempt to work with the army fairly than hearth it wholesale, the best way it was executed in Baghdad. And hope that by means of coerced cooperation, the Venezuelans will keep ample order that this strategy of U.S., I wish to say, reappropriation of Venezuelan oil can happen and the nation shall be modernized. 

However, boy, I am unable to think about, Joe, a extra slippery slope forward than what they’re describing as the method for placing this nation again collectively. It’s a mess. Trump is true in saying that. However I have never heard something but that tells me how they are going to remodel the mess right into a viable, steady nation. Nothing. 

SCARBOROUGH: Once more, we, we glance again and see what occurred with Iraq, and even Afghanistan, which for some time individuals had been saying, effectively, that was a very good warfare. Properly, no, no. Afghanistan and Iraq each resulted in tragedy. 

Jon Meacham, I, I simply maintain going again to the early days, as David Ignatius talks about exhilaration, the early days of, of Iraq after the March invasion. We had, you understand, generals fist bumping me, saying, are you able to consider how nice issues are going? Retired generals. Are you able to consider how nice issues are going over there? I had individuals within the media saying Bush goes to be president without end, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. 

I even keep in mind Jon Stewart, who simply unmercifully grilled George W. Bush. At one level, when issues had been going so effectively in Iraq in these first few months, he threw his fingers up and stated, I assume my youngsters are going to be going to center colleges named after George W. Bush. 

In fact, that did not occur. Issues turned south badly, and there is little or no a president can do if you attempt to occupy a overseas nation as issues unravel. It is definitely not what we’re hoping for right here, however It’s what historical past, current historical past, has taught us over the previous 20 years.