The delicate peace between Cambodia and Thailand has collapsed simply months after US President Donald Trump claimed to have “ended” their battle. The Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord, brokered by Washington in August following a five-day battle in July, was hailed as a breakthrough. However the deal was constructed on shaky foundations, on exterior stress slightly than real belief and mutual settlement, and predictably sufficient, has unravelled.
The settlement required each side to settle the border dispute peacefully underneath present mechanisms, withdraw heavy weapons, clear landmines alongside the border and launch the 18 Cambodian troopers captured by Thailand sooner or later after the ceasefire in July.
Underneath the monitoring of the ASEAN Commentary Crew (AOT), some weaponry was withdrawn, and discussions have been initiated to find out the border areas and launch the prisoners. However then in November 2025, a Thai soldier was wounded by a mine alongside the border. Thailand accused Cambodia of planting contemporary mines in its soil. Cambodia insisted the mines had been remnants from a former battle zone inside its territory.
Days later, Thailand alleged that Cambodia launched photographs at its troopers. Cambodia denied this however Thailand resumed hostilities the subsequent day, vowing to decapacitate its enemy’s military. Paradoxically, landmines and ‘who-shot-first’ disputes had been what triggered the primary battle in July. Might these triggers have been averted?
Earlier than the tipping level, Cambodia had complained to AOT about Thailand’s encroachment upon its villages and killing of Cambodian villagers. AOT investigated however delivered no clear findings, leaving any information and accountability within the vacuum. AOT failed in the identical method concerning the landmine incident that led to the present battle. The result’s a number of dozen deaths, a million individuals being displaced, and harm to historical temples in Cambodia.
AOT is remitted to watch the peace accord, conduct investigations and implement compliance. Nevertheless, this mandate is hamstrung by structural flaws.
First, AOT is under-resourced. With an 800km border to supervise, the workforce consists of defence attachés from simply seven ASEAN states. Underneath-resourced and reactive, AOT struggles to confirm information or entry disputed websites shortly. ASEAN’s non-interference precept additional limits its means to compel compliance, leaving enforcement toothless.
Its lack of ability to research incidents swiftly or entry disputed websites shortly has left a verification vacuum that has allowed conflicting claims and distrust to fester.
ASEAN’s precept of non-interference means AOT can not compel Thailand or Cambodia to adjust to border treaties and different bilateral agreements, which limits its means to implement findings of any investigations.
Trump intervened once more on December 13, calling on each leaders to cease the combating, later threatening to revoke tariff agreements with the 2 nations.
Cambodia and Thailand could return to the peace deal underneath US stress however cellphone calls from Washington are unlikely to end in a sustained peace. The function of ASEAN in facilitating confidence-building measures must be enhanced.
ASEAN should strengthen its function in confidence-building and equip AOT with assets and authority to behave decisively. Swift, credible investigations might defuse tensions earlier than they spiral into battle.
The Cambodia-Thailand battle demonstrates that exterior stress from a superpower can drive the dispute events to signal a peace deal however is unlikely to end in a sustained peace.
Sustained peace requires a reliable regional physique to watch, examine and implement its implementation. That is notably essential when it includes events which have a historical past of failed bilateral mechanisms and deep mutual distrust the place outdated suspicions will seemingly reignite, bilateral failures will persist, and fragile peace will stay simply that – fragile.
