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Shrinking economy takes toll on FTSE 100 amid ‘unsurprising surprise’

December 13, 2025
in Business
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Shrinking economy takes toll on FTSE 100 amid ‘unsurprising surprise’
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The FTSE 100’s early promise pale on Friday amid downbeat financial progress figures and contemporary US tech weak point.

The FTSE 100 index closed down 54.1 factors, 0.6%, at 9,649.03.

It had earlier traded as excessive as 9,761.47.

The FTSE 250 ended 24.45 factors larger, 0.1%, at 21,876.55, and the AIM All-Share ended up 3.70 factors, 0.5%, at 751.36.

For the week, the FTSE 100 fell 0.2%, the FTSE 250 declined 0.9% and the AIM All-Share dropped 0.2%.

The temper was knocked by information that the UK economic system shrank in October, in keeping with figures from the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics.

Gross home product is estimated to have fallen by 0.1% in October, the identical as in September, lacking the FXStreet-cited market consensus for a 0.1% rise.

Companies output fell by 0.3%, whereas building output fell by 0.6%.

Manufacturing output, nonetheless, climbed 1.1%.

Citi analyst Callum McLaren-Stewart known as the info “an unsurprising shock”.

“A miss in October is probably not probably the most stunning end result.

“Pre-budget uncertainty, and notably the diploma of hypothesis forward of the occasion, can seemingly clarify the miss relative to forecasts,” he stated.

“For households, the prospect of earnings tax will increase (which was nonetheless very a lot stay throughout October) would seemingly have put the brakes on shopper spending,” the Citi analyst stated, whereas, on the enterprise facet, “the related lack of readability round which sectors have been to be taxed, may have seemingly delayed/slowed funding choices”.

Berenberg analyst Andrew Wishart fears a few of the slowdown within the UK economic system could possibly be as a consequence of underlying points and never simply price range uncertainty.

“We suspect that deteriorating fundamentals moderately than a budget-related setback in confidence are guilty, so a restoration appears unlikely within the close to time period,” Mr Wishart stated.

The information was seen as cementing a quarter-point rate of interest lower at subsequent week’s Financial institution of England Financial Coverage Committee assembly.

“Not that it was in any doubt in any respect, however immediately’s information basically ensures that the Financial institution of England will slash charges once more subsequent week.

“The main target will as a substitute be on the steerage for charges in 2026.

“Any dovish undertones that trace at additional easing forward might bode in poor health for the pound,” Ebury analyst Matthew Ryan stated.

Mr McLaren-Stewart agrees the info “clearly helps the consensus case for a lower”.

“Nonetheless, we anticipate the (BoE) shall be obliged to chop decrease than at present priced in 2026, necessitating a terminal fee beneath 3%, supported by weaker GDP outlook,” he added.

Sterling fell again after the figures, after rallying in current days.

The pound was quoted decrease at 1.3356 US {dollars} on the time of the London equities shut on Friday, in comparison with 1.3416 US {dollars} on Thursday.

The euro stood at 1.1739 US {dollars}, down in opposition to 1.1746 US {dollars}.

In opposition to the yen, the greenback was buying and selling larger at 155.69 yen in comparison with 155.24.

In Europe on Friday, the CAC 40 in Paris closed down 0.1%, whereas the DAX 40 in Frankfurt ended 0.5% decrease.

Shares in New York have been decrease on the time of the London fairness shut.

The Dow Jones Industrial Common was down 0.7%, the S&P 500 index was 1.4% decrease, whereas the Nasdaq Composite was down 2.1%.

Know-how shares have been firmly within the crimson as soon as extra as Broadcom slid 11% after outcomes did not match lofty expectations, whereas Oracle fell an extra 4.6%.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury was quoted at 4.19%, stretched from 4.12% on Thursday.

The yield on the US 30-year Treasury was at 4.86%, widened from 4.77%.

Supporting the greenback and pushing yields larger, feedback from two officers who voted in opposition to the Federal Reserve’s determination to decrease rates of interest this week.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee had joined Kansas Metropolis Fed President Jeffrey Schmid in pushing to maintain charges unchanged as a substitute on the central financial institution’s two-day coverage assembly, which ended on Wednesday.

“I imagine we should always have waited to get extra information, particularly about inflation, earlier than decreasing charges additional,” stated Mr Goolsbee in an announcement Friday.

In a separate assertion, Mr Schmid, who additionally pushed for no fee lower on the Fed’s October assembly, stated: “Proper now, I see an economic system that’s displaying momentum and inflation that’s too scorching, suggesting that coverage just isn’t overly restrictive.”

As well as, Federal Reserve Financial institution of Cleveland President Beth Hammack stated she would favor rates of interest to be barely extra restrictive to maintain placing stress on inflation, which remains to be working too excessive.

Again in London, InterContinental Inns Group rose 2.3% as Jefferies upgraded to “purchase” from “maintain”‘, however Whitbread dropped 2.2% because the dealer moved the Premier Inn proprietor the opposite approach, to “maintain” from “purchase”.

Elsewhere, 1Spatial soared 45% after agreeing in precept to a proposed £87.1 million provide from VertiGIS, a portfolio firm of London-based non-public fairness agency Battery Ventures.

The Cambridge, England-based location grasp information administration software program firm stated the money bid would worth every 1Spatial share at 73 pence.

VertiGIS confirmed that it has accomplished business due diligence, has a transparent understanding of the 1Spatial enterprise and requires solely restricted confirmatory diligence to proceed to creating a agency provide.

However Card Manufacturing unit plummeted 27% after chopping its revenue steerage because it stated weak high-street retail footfall damage its UK retailer gross sales efficiency.

The Wakefield, England-based greeting playing cards, items and celebration merchandise retailer stated it expects adjusted pretax revenue of between £55 million and £60 million for monetary 2026, which ends on January 31, if present buying and selling traits persist.

That is decrease than the corporate’s earlier steerage, which was for mid-to-high single-digit-percentage progress in adjusted pretax revenue from £66.0 million in monetary 2025, roughly £70 million.

Card Manufacturing unit attributed weak shopper confidence to the decrease excessive road footfall, which has persevered into its “most vital” buying and selling interval.

Brent oil was quoted at 61.30 {dollars} a barrel on the time of the London equities shut on Friday, up from 60.91 late on Thursday.

Gold was quoted at 4,291.08 {dollars} an oz on Friday, larger in opposition to 4,254.97.

The largest risers on the FTSE 100 have been Burberry, up 54.50 pence at 1272.5p, Ashtead Group, up 128.0p at 5,138.0p, BT Group, up 3.7p at 180.5p, Intercontinental Inns Group, up 185.0p at 10,235.0p and Fresnillo, up 46.0p at 2,904.0p.

The largest fallers on the FTSE 100 have been St James’s Place, down 49.0p at 1,316.5p, British American Tobacco, down 146.0p at 4,238.0p, Anglo American, down 80.0p at 2,817.0p, Weir, down 80.0p at 2,856.0p and Imperial Manufacturers, down 86.0p at 3,179.0p.

Monday’s financial calendar has CPI figures in Canada.

Later within the week, rate of interest choices are due in Europe, Japan and the UK. As well as, US nonfarm payrolls figures shall be launched, plus UK and US inflation and retail gross sales information.

Subsequent week’s UK company calendar has delayed full-year outcomes from journey retailer WH Smith and half-year numbers from electricals retailer Currys.

Contributed by Alliance Information.



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Tags: economyFTSEShrinkingSurprisetakestollunsurprising
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