Expectations is usually a fickle beast. They drive hope for higher instances, however are sometimes on the root of nice disappointment.
When Chris Fagan arrived on the Brisbane Lions they had been nearly at all-time low. The Queenslanders had didn’t make the finals for the previous seven years, with the prior three caught within the backside 4.
Expectations of success weren’t simply low — they had been non-existent.
Their coaching rooms flooded and the crowds had been staying away. The glory days of the early 2000s had been the distant previous and fading quick each single day.
Fagan’s first yr in cost was little higher, with the membership incomes their second ever picket spoon of their merged historical past. Most guessed that issues may solely get higher, principally as a result of they may hardly worsen.
It took a few years however fortunes began to alter. The Lions obtained off to a sizzling begin in 2019, however Fagan was fast to place the brakes on.
“I can not management the expectations,” he mentioned.
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“Individuals will little question discuss us up, however we’ll simply follow the week-to-week method we have had all yr.”
It was quickly obvious that the Lions had been right here to remain, no matter any makes an attempt to pump the brakes. In 2019 they completed third on the ladder earlier than crashing out in straight units. Not content material to relaxation on their laurels, the Queenslanders saved constructing, culminating in a good grand remaining loss in 2023 and their final victory final yr.
That does not imply Fagan stopped making an attempt to maintain Brisbane — and their followers — trustworthy. Earlier than this season Fagan even appeared to recommend that they did not have to unfurl the flag this yr.
“We had the celebration final yr in September after we gained,” he mentioned.
“We do not want one other celebration in March to be trustworthy. I do know it is custom to unfurl the flag, however we have moved on from that improbable second.”
All via the season Lions gamers have talked about tempering expectations and placing final yr behind them lest they turn into caught prior to now. As an alternative of a mission to win a second flag in a row it appeared like Brisbane was taking pictures for his or her first once more, albeit with a goal on their again.
Nonetheless, Lions followers have dared to dream. The final time the Lions gained one flag, they gained three in a row. This time round there’s extra individuals watching up north, and extra Queenslanders on the sector.
On Saturday the Lions journey involves an finish towards a facet they’ve already crushed (and misplaced to) this yr. Will this reworked model of final yr get the job performed?
Typical system
Most profitable soccer groups have a method or identification that units them aside. Brisbane are not any totally different.
A Lions recreation sees them controlling play by executing kicks to uncontested marks across the floor. No facet takes extra uncontested marks than the Lions, and solely two favor to kick fairly than handpass extra (Geelong and Adelaide).
This management of the sport was a big a part of their run to the flag final yr — each shifting the ball down the bottom successfully and taking alternatives away from opposition sides.
Most groups executing this technique would utilise wider components of the bottom as these are often probably the most sparsely defended bits.
Not the Lions.
When beginning of their defensive third the Lions use the ball aggressively via the prime actual property in the midst of the sector. The Lions boast expert ball customers throughout all strains, capable of decide holes in probably the most strong defences. If opposition sides slip on their protection schemes, the Lions can take the sport instantly from you.
It is why Collingwood captain Darcy Moore instructed his group to “personal the (expletive) hall” earlier than their remaining final week. That is one thing the Pies struggled to do, which is why the Lions are again in Melbourne for yet one more week.
Establishing the hall is not only necessary for the direct outcomes it will get — it additionally forces opposition sides to regulate. It makes the bottom tougher to defend and opens gaps elsewhere. If opponents get too unfavourable after the Lions set up the hall it will possibly hamper their very own scoring, too.
Of their two wins towards the Cats earlier this yr, Brisbane compelled the sport via the center about 50% greater than an odd recreation. This opened the Cats defence up in a method that few different sides have been ready to do that yr. It is also noteworthy that the Cats have struggled towards the Giants, one other facet to focus on the center of the bottom.
Within the qualifying remaining, the Cats went to lots of effort to not solely cease the Lions going via the center, however to keep away from the hall themselves. When a facet makes use of the heart of the bottom it will possibly additionally open you up for a fast counter assault the opposite method.
In fact, to maneuver the ball anyplace you have to get it first.
The onerous grind
Arguably the most important story for the Lions coming into the sport centres across the choice of premiership captain and two-time Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale.
The veteran midfielder has managed only one injured recreation within the final six weeks, enjoying solely in that finals loss to Geelong. Most believed Neale’s season was over when he injured his calf in that remaining however he has made a speedy return to bolster one of many items most crucial for the Lions success.
Throughout the course of the yr getting first possession — and the territory from it — has been key to how the Lions have succeeded. The Lions sit second all through the season for clearance differential behind solely the Western Bulldogs. Virtually all of this benefit comes across the floor, with the Lions deep midfield group benefited by with the ability to deploy further numbers across the ball. Regardless of not having an elite faucet ruck, the Lions are capable of successfully management
This benefit hasn’t been constant week to week nevertheless.
In direction of the again half of the common season the Lions discovered their stoppage recreation beginning to turn into much less potent. The publish season bye can permit opposition sides to focus higher on the main sides, doubtlessly resulting in some floor being misplaced by final yr’s champions. Nevertheless, these mid-year blues had been extinguished in current weeks, except for their loss to the Cats.
A lot of that progress was made with out their co-captain.
Some questions exist round how Neale will reintegrate, as gifted as he’s. The midfield group has appeared to seek out their ft with out him, placing a steadiness between ball winners, line breakers and defensive choices.
This steadiness and Neale’s health might even see his abilities deployed extra in bursts across the ball, fairly than in a full time function.
Whatever the alternative, Brisbane will probably have to win clearances to have an actual likelihood of repeating final yr’s success.
Fading frontiers
What occurs in the midst of the bottom is so necessary for the Lions this yr resulting from some hiccups nearer to every aim.
On account of retirements, accidents and the league adjusting, the Lions haven’t been their current selves both scoring or stopping opposition sides.
If there was a cornerstone of the Fagan-led Lions it has been their assault. Few sides have attacked with as a lot aptitude or effectivity as the boys in maroon.
Whereas a lot of their recreation picked up on their march to the flag final yr, their assault tempered just a bit. This yr that relative decline has continued to the purpose that it’s not their greatest power.
A big a part of this decline has been because of the altering of the guard of their tall shares.
The retirement of Joe Daniher left a tough void to fill — one which was exacerbated by the mid-season damage to the versatile Eric Hipwood.
Logan Morris has more and more impressed because the yr has progressed, however Morris does not area the ahead line or function as a distributor like the opposite two.
Ty Gallop — notionally the second tall ahead — is simply 19-years-old and has performed simply 5 video games of league soccer. In February, Fagan was optimistic about Gallop’s potential affect.
“There’s one other younger bloke that we drafted this yr from our Academy, Ty Gallop … do not be shocked if he is an individual that pops up this yr as a reasonably good AFL participant,” he mentioned.
Each are shorter than 195cm nevertheless — which is on the smaller facet for a contemporary key place ahead.
Meaning Brisbane usually has to depend on producing a excessive quantity of inside 50 alternatives, together with repeat entries from ahead stress. The Lions have additionally been the very best group at producing clearances inside their ahead 50, scoring almost two targets a recreation on common.
This method signifies that the Lions can get by even with out having true tall targets to function via. By means of their lengthy established rules and flexibility, the Lions have overcome what could possibly be fatally damaging to their hopes.
Down again it is a comparable story, with accidents to Jack Payne, Darcy Gardiner and Brandon Starcevich hampering their defensive recreation.
In the course of the yr Fagan famous their sluggish begin with out the ball.
“I assume group defence is the one which drifts as a lot as something as a result of it is an angle factor,” he mentioned.
“We have picked that again up and hopefully we are able to preserve that going once more for some time.”
As an alternative of a powerful aerial recreation the Lions have needed to work extra off spoils and floor degree intercepts. Harris Andrews has had maybe his best yr to this point, which has helped them preserve their heads above water.
Nonetheless, adaptability and survival is much better than the choice, and the Lions are nonetheless discovering a solution to win the ball from opposition sides.
Repeat, or threepeat?
On Saturday night the load of expectations might be lifted from the Lions shoulders a technique or one other.
A lot of the Lions group, alongside Fagan, have skilled each excessive elation and disappointment after the most important recreation of the yr. They know the problem forward of them greater than anybody else may presumably know.
The Lions and Cats are additionally very aware of one another and the way they play. The Lions have the sting to date this yr, however that may rely for nothing if they can not execute yet one more time.
If they will management the center of the bottom and the tempo of play, they are going to be firmly on the best way to turning into simply the fourth facet this century to repeat as champions. If that occurs, Brisbane followers will begin to hope for a second threepeat.
No matter outcome Fagan might be reducing expectations another time subsequent yr.
